Polymarket's prediction market has seen a significant increase in the probability that U.S. President Donald Trump will announce the end of military action against Iran by April 30. According to Odaily, the probability surged to 78% before settling at 61%, marking a 30% rise over 24 hours. The total trading volume for the event contract has surpassed $15.669 million.
The contract stipulates that if Trump, the U.S. government, or military officially announces the end of the military action initiated on February 28, 2026, by the specified date (Eastern Time), the market will be deemed a 'yes.' Otherwise, it will be a 'no.' Valid statements must clearly indicate the action's conclusion. Informal statements, anonymous sources, or leaked information do not qualify. Trump's public written statements, such as posts on his "Truth Social" account, and videos on his social media accounts are considered valid. The primary basis for market determination is official statements from the U.S. government and its representatives, supplemented by consensus from other credible reports.
Previously, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran and stated that the U.S. would assist in managing the increasing shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. However, his post on Truth Social did not provide details on how the U.S. would help the strait or address Iran's continued collection of passage fees from certain vessels.
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