Key Takeaways
XRP shows oversold RSI at multi-month lows, historically linked to rebounds.Onchain data (MVRV Z-score) signals accumulation zone.Critical support lies at $1.25–$1.30.Upside targets range from $1.45 to $1.70+, if support holds.
Technical Indicators Point to Possible Bottom
XRP has been in a prolonged downtrend for roughly eight months, but key technical signals now suggest a potential reversal.
The XRP/BTC relative strength index (RSI) has dropped to 24, marking its most oversold level since October 2025.
Historically, similar RSI levels have preceded:
65% to 345% rallies against BitcoinStrong recovery phases following extended downtrends
Historical Support Zone Holds Again
XRP/BTC is currently trading within a long-term consolidation range that has previously acted as a launchpad for major rallies.
Past examples:
June 2025: Led to a 61% gain vs BTC and a 92% XRP price rallyMultiple previous cycles show this zone aligning with macro bottoms
This reinforces the importance of the current price region.
Onchain Data Signals Accumulation Phase
Onchain metrics further support a bottoming narrative:
MVRV Z-score near zero → indicates holders are near breakevenReduced selling pressureHistorically aligned with accumulation zones
Previous instances (2021, 2022, 2024) saw similar conditions followed by strong rallies.
Additionally:
The 0.80 MVRV pricing band (~$1.14) aligns with recent lowsSuggests XRP may be undervalued at current levels
Key Support Zone: $1.25–$1.30
The most critical level for XRP remains:
Primary support: $1.25–$1.30Strong buyer concentration (~1.73B XRP accumulated here)
If this zone holds:
Short-term bounce toward $1.45 possibleBroader recovery toward $1.70+ remains in play
Downside Risk if Support Breaks
If XRP loses key support:
Next support: $1.15 (near 200-week moving average)Breakdown scenario: potential drop toward $0.80 (~40% downside)
This makes the current range a decisive battleground for bulls and bears.
Recovery Depends on Holding Support
XRP is showing early signs of a potential bottom, supported by both technical and onchain indicators.
However, confirmation depends on:
Holding the $1.25–$1.30 support zoneReclaiming higher resistance levelsBroader market conditions
If these align, XRP could transition from consolidation into a new recovery phase, but failure to hold support would invalidate the bullish setup.