On April 27, Jin10 Futures reported that the main contract for lithium carbonate saw a daily increase of 4.00%, currently priced at 184,740 yuan per ton. According to Jin10, a report from Chuangyuan Futures on April 27 indicated that armed attacks erupted in Mali over the weekend. Currently, Mali hosts lithium mines such as Goulamina and Bougouni, which supply lithium ore for domestic lithium salt production. Although the production sites are some distance from the conflict zones, the transportation of lithium ore might be affected. The report suggests monitoring whether the conflict expands or persists.
From a fundamental perspective, April has seen an overall inventory build-up. Weekly lithium carbonate production reached 25,947 tons, an increase of 234 tons from the previous week, with inventory at 103,470 tons, up by 656 tons. However, imports of Zimbabwean lithium concentrate have decreased, slowing the marginal growth of supply. Demand remains strong, with preliminary battery production for May expected to rise by 6-8% month-on-month. As downstream capacity increases, May is likely to shift from inventory accumulation to reduction.
The core issue lies in the export quota for Zimbabwean lithium concentrate, which, although determined, is still undergoing processing. Shipments are expected to resume in late May, with a significant gap in supply anticipated. The expectation of tight supply in May is strengthening, as evidenced by firm concentrate prices and narrowing processing profits from purchased ore, reflecting the reality of tight supply. A strong fluctuation is expected before the May Day holiday, with post-holiday attention on whether the anticipated ore shortage materializes.
Weatherly
