Kalshi Expands Election Betting Markets Globally

According to Cointelegraph, prediction marketplace Kalshi has introduced contracts for betting on election outcomes outside the United States, as political wagers increase ahead of the US presidential contest in November. The new contracts cover national races in countries such as Australia and Ecuador, as per regulatory filings with the Commodity Future Trading Commissions (CFTC). Additionally, Kalshi has added markets for the 2025 elections in Canada and Ireland, expanding its existing roster of election betting markets, which includes over a dozen contracts tied to the upcoming US federal elections. As of October 23, Kalshi’s flagship market, “Who will win the Presidential election?” has accumulated approximately $52 million in total betting volume since its listing on October 7, according to Kalshi’s website. On October 21, Kalshi introduced more than a dozen new contracts. This follows the platform's listing of event contracts for betting on US election outcomes on October 7, after winning a landmark court battle in September. This development marks the first time an election prediction market has been allowed to operate in the US, potentially opening the door for other platforms, including Web3 platforms like Polymarket. Polymarket has reported that around $2.3 billion is currently wagered on the outcome of the November US presidential election as of October 23. In 2024, more than 75 countries worldwide, including major economies in the European Union, India, and Russia, are scheduled to hold elections, according to data from Maps Interlude. Other countries, such as Australia, Canada, Ecuador, and Ireland, are set to hold elections in 2025. The CFTC has expressed concerns that election prediction markets like Kalshi could threaten the integrity of elections. However, industry analysts argue that these markets often capture public sentiment more accurately than traditional polls. Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, stated in an August comment letter to the CFTC that event contract markets are a valuable public good and there is no significant evidence of manipulation or widespread misuse for nefarious purposes.