Goldman Sachs Expects U.S. Headline and Core CPI to Rise 0.3% Month-on-Month in September

Key TakeawaysGoldman Sachs forecasts both headline and core CPI to rise 0.3% month-on-month in September.The core inflation rate is expected to remain steady around 3.1%.Car prices and airfares are easing, reducing upward inflation pressure.Labor and housing market contributions to inflation are cooling.Tariffs may lift prices in communications, home improvement, and entertainment sectors.Despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, Goldman Sachs expects the delayed September inflation report to be released this Friday.In a report published over the weekend, the bank projected that both headline and core consumer price index (CPI) figures will rise 0.3% month-on-month, keeping core inflation steady near 3.1%.Goldman analysts noted that the inflationary impact of vehicle prices is weakening, while airfare costs are likely to decline. Meanwhile, the labor market and housing market—two key inflation drivers—are showing signs of moderation.However, the bank warned that tariffs could add upward price pressure in specific sectors, particularly communications, home improvement, and entertainment.Goldman Sachs expects the core inflation rate for the 12 months ending December 2025 to remain anchored around 3.1%, signaling a gradual cooling trend but not a full return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.