Market Anticipates High Probability of December Rate Cut by Federal Reserve

According to PANews, Matrixport's recent analysis indicates that the market expects an 84% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve on December 10, based on the implied pricing of federal funds futures. Additionally, there is a 65% probability that rates will remain unchanged in January. Despite the potential rate cut in December, the overall monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative. In comparison to Bitcoin, gold shows a stronger correlation with the U.S. fiscal deficit and the pace of government bond issuance, making it a more direct hedge against fiscal expansion and rate cut expectations. Bitcoin, on the other hand, relies more on substantial new capital inflows, which have not yet been significantly released. In this context, the divergence in the performance of gold and Bitcoin is likely to persist in the short term.