Bitcoin’s recent recovery rally is showing signs of fatigue as weakening signals from U.S. equities and bond-market volatility indicators raise caution for bulls. With the Nasdaq stalling and Treasury volatility threatening to rebound, analysts warn that BTC may be vulnerable to a renewed pullback toward the $80,000 zone.Key TakeawaysBitcoin has slipped from $93,000 to below $90,000 despite a softer U.S. dollar following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut.The Nasdaq printed a bearish engulfing candle, signaling potential downside volatility in risk assets.The MOVE index suggests rising Treasury volatility, a historical headwind for Bitcoin prices.Bitcoin Rally Loses Momentum Below Key ResistanceBitcoin’s three-week rebound from the November 21 low near $80,000 now appears increasingly fragile. After carving out a series of higher highs and higher lows within a counter-trend rising channel, BTC failed to sustain momentum above the $93,000–$94,000 resistance zone.Despite supportive macro signals — including a weaker dollar following the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut — Bitcoin retreated sharply over the weekend, sliding from $93,000 on Friday to nearly $88,000 on Sunday before stabilizing around $89,600.Last week’s candle structure underscores the shift in momentum. BTC printed a bearish rejection candle with a long upper wick above $94,000 and a small red body, a classic sign of selling pressure and “sell-the-rally” behavior dominating near highs.Nasdaq Reversal Raises Risk-Off Warning for CryptoThe caution is reinforced by developments in U.S. equity markets. The Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 2% last week, forming a bearish engulfing candle that fully erased the prior week’s gains. On the weekly timeframe, the MACD remains bearish, signaling that downside volatility may not be finished.Given Bitcoin’s historically strong positive correlation with U.S. tech stocks — particularly during equity drawdowns — a sustained Nasdaq pullback could amplify downside pressure on BTC. Market makers have previously noted that Bitcoin often underperforms during Nasdaq-led risk-off phases.Treasury Volatility Signals Add Another HeadwindFurther complicating the outlook is the MOVE index, which tracks implied volatility in U.S. Treasury notes. After a prolonged decline, the MOVE index printed an inverted hammer candle last week — a technical pattern often interpreted as an early signal of a volatility rebound.A rise in Treasury volatility typically tightens global financial conditions and weighs on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to move inversely to the MOVE index, meaning renewed volatility in bonds could cap upside or accelerate downside moves in BTC.Key Levels to WatchWith macro and technical signals aligning, analysts say Bitcoin is more likely to break down from its counter-trend channel than extend higher in the near term.Downside risk: A confirmed breakdown could open the door for a retest of the $80,000 support zone.Bullish invalidation: BTC must reclaim and hold above $94,000–$95,000 to restore short-term bullish structure.Major resistance: Heavy overhead supply remains between $96,000 and $100,000, including the 50-day simple moving average and the Ichimoku cloud.While Bitcoin remains well above its November lows, weakening equity momentum and rising bond-market volatility suggest caution is warranted. Unless BTC can decisively clear near-term resistance, the probability of a deeper pullback — including a check-back toward $80,000 — continues to rise.
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