According to Cointelegraph, the Bitcoin market is experiencing significant shifts beneath its seemingly familiar price levels, as highlighted by onchain analyst James Check. In a recent interview, Check revisited the question of whether the market is currently in a bull or bear phase. Despite Bitcoin trading at similar price points, Check emphasizes that factors such as leverage, investor cost base, and sell-side behavior have undergone substantial changes, impacting market sentiment.
Check notes that a considerable portion of capital invested in Bitcoin was acquired at higher prices, resulting in many holders being underwater. This situation has fostered a cautious sentiment among investors. Contrary to the common belief that long-term holders refrain from selling, onchain data reveals that coins of varying ages are returning to the market at an accelerated pace. This influx of supply has significantly influenced recent price movements, even if the narrative surrounding it emerged later.
The analyst also addresses claims regarding the influence of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Michael Saylor, and corporate treasuries on Bitcoin. While these entities play a role, they constitute only a fraction of the overall market activity. Check underscores the importance of recognizing Bitcoin's growth in size and liquidity, which enables it to absorb substantial flows without experiencing the volatility characteristic of earlier cycles.
Looking forward, Check outlines his framework for 2026, urging caution against both blind optimism and extreme bearishness. The discussion also explores topics such as sovereign adoption, portfolio construction, and long-term risks that investors often overlook. For a comprehensive analysis and detailed data, viewers can watch the full interview with James Check on Cointelegraph's YouTube channel.
Catherine
