Goldman Sachs Predicts U.S. Economic Growth Driven by Tax Cuts and Wage Increases in 2026

According to PANews, Goldman Sachs economists anticipate that the U.S. economy will be bolstered by tax cuts, real wage growth, and rising wealth this year, with inflation expected to remain moderate. The bank's '2026 U.S. Economic Outlook' report, released on January 11, suggests that due to uncertain labor market prospects, the Federal Reserve is likely to implement two 25 basis point rate cuts in June and September. Goldman Sachs forecasts a GDP growth rate of 2.5% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2026, with an annual rate of 2.8%. By December, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate is projected to be 2.1% year-over-year, while the core consumer price index (CPI) is expected to slow to 2%. The baseline unemployment rate is predicted to stabilize at 4.5%, although there is a risk of a period of 'no employment growth' as companies seek to leverage artificial intelligence to reduce labor costs. In terms of trade, Goldman Sachs assumes that the upcoming midterm elections will make the cost of living a significant political issue, prompting the White House to avoid any substantial tariff increases.