Bitcoin's Path To $100,000 Faces Challenges Amid Long-Term Holder Sell-Off
According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin's recent surge toward the $100,000 mark has been accompanied by significant sell-offs from long-term holders. Analysts suggest this could indicate a potential market peak, which might lead to bearish trends if demand decreases. Maartuun, a contributor to CryptoQuant, likened the situation to a game of musical chairs, advising caution as the market dynamics shift.
Since November 8, long-term holders, defined as those who have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days, have sold approximately 827,783 BTC, valued at around $82.59 billion at the current price of $99,200. Maartuun pointed out that while significant purchases have been made, such as the 149,800 BTC acquired by MicroStrategy and the 84,193 BTC inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, these only account for about 30% of the total sold by long-term holders. Despite this sell pressure, Bitcoin's strength persists, partly due to retail demand reaching yearly highs, as indicated by CryptoQuant's retail demand 30-day change chart.
Retail investors are also actively participating in futures trading. Data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin's Open Interest, which tracks the total number of unsettled Bitcoin derivative contracts, stands at $61.18 billion. Maartuun noted that long-term Bitcoin holders are sitting on substantial unrealized profits, with the Long Term Holder realized price at $24,481, representing an average gain of approximately 400% for these holders.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin's price is $99,203, according to CoinMarketCap. On December 6, Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, commented on the liquidity conditions using his Bitcoin MSI macro model. He warned that despite Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, the deteriorating liquidity backdrop could pose challenges. Coutts believes that if conditions worsen, the current rally, although euphoric, may be short-lived. Readers are reminded that this article does not provide investment advice, and all trading decisions should be made with careful consideration of the risks involved.