Major Banks Anticipate Stable Interest Rates with Potential Future Cuts

Several major financial institutions, including Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and HSBC, expect interest rates to remain unchanged in the near term. According to Jin10, Barclays suggests that while rates are likely to stay the same, a clear timeline for future rate cuts may not be provided. They anticipate the earliest rate cut could occur next month, driven by lower inflation expectations and a weakening labor market. Goldman Sachs predicts a 7-2 vote in favor of maintaining current rates, with the possibility of more members supporting a rate cut. They expect rate reductions in March, June, and September, potentially bringing rates down to 3% due to a weak employment market. Capital Economics also foresees stable rates, indicating that the next rate cut is not imminent. They suggest that if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) falls below 2.0%, rates could decrease to 3% instead of 3.5%. Mitsubishi UFJ anticipates no change in rates due to stronger economic growth momentum, with potential rate cuts in May and August, lowering the benchmark rate to 3.25%. HSBC believes the Bank of England is less concerned about the deflationary impact of a depreciating dollar compared to the European Central Bank, which may support the pound against the euro in the short term. Scotiabank expects a prolonged cycle of rate stability since last August, with 1-2 rate cuts anticipated this year, but without urgency. DBS Bank predicts stable rates, noting that future policy easing decisions will be more cautious and data-dependent, with the pound/dollar likely to remain weak. Oxford Economics suggests that if upcoming data indicates a cooling in wage growth, a rate cut could occur at the April meeting. JPMorgan expects a 7-2 vote to maintain rates, with adjustments in short-term unemployment forecasts and reductions in wage growth and inflation predictions supporting a March rate cut. Nordea anticipates stable rates due to cautious forward guidance, with the first rate cut expected in March, though recent growth momentum could delay it to April. Coface expects stable rates with signals of gradual rate cuts, predicting a rate cut at the end of April and two more within the year. Morgan Stanley forecasts a 6-3 vote to maintain rates, with a risk of a 5-4 outcome, and no change in policy guidance. They expect the terminal rate to be 3%, with cuts in March, July, and November.