On February 9, analysts from research and brokerage firm Bernstein reiterated their long-term optimistic view on Bitcoin, describing the current market downturn as the weakest bear market scenario the asset has faced so far. According to BlockBeats, they believe this situation does not undermine Bitcoin's broad adoption prospects or investment logic.
Led by Gautam Chhugani, the analyst team stated in a report to clients on Monday, "We are experiencing the weakest bear market scenario in Bitcoin's history." They noted that the recent price weakness reflects a crisis of confidence rather than any flaws in the underlying system and maintained a target price of $150,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2026.
The company highlighted that typical catalysts associated with past Bitcoin declines have not occurred, emphasizing the absence of major bankruptcies, hidden leverage, or systemic collapse. Instead, analysts pointed to significant differences in the current cycle compared to previous bear markets, including strong institutional synergy, a pro-Bitcoin U.S. President Donald Trump, the adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs, increasing corporate fund allocations, and continued involvement from large asset management firms.
Addressing concerns about Bitcoin's underperformance compared to gold amid recent macroeconomic fluctuations, Bernstein analysts argued that Bitcoin is currently traded primarily as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a mature safe-haven asset. They noted that a tight financial environment and high interest rates have concentrated returns in a few asset classes, such as precious metals and AI-related stocks. However, Bitcoin's ETF infrastructure and corporate financing channels remain poised for capital inflows when liquidity conditions improve.
The analysts also countered claims that Bitcoin is losing relevance in an AI-driven economy. They believe that with the rise of OpenClaw, blockchain and programmable wallets are well-suited for the emerging "agentized" digital environment, as autonomous software agents require global, machine-readable financial rails. They pointed out that blockchain systems have an advantage over traditional banking infrastructure, which is limited by closed APIs and legacy integration challenges.
Regarding the risk of quantum computing, Bernstein acknowledged the potential cryptographic threats in the future but stated that Bitcoin is not the only area facing this risk. The company believes that all critical digital systems face similar challenges and will collectively transition to quantum-resistant standards. The report added that Bitcoin's transparent codebase and the increasing involvement of well-funded major stakeholders like Strategy enable it to adapt in sync with other financial and government systems.
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