Bitcoin Futures Premium Declines Without Reaching Backwardation

Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) are currently exhibiting a reduced premium, though the market has not transitioned into backwardation, a condition observed during previous market bottoms. According to NS3.AI, the prices of longer-dated futures continue to exceed spot prices, resulting in a flat futures curve. Historical patterns suggest that backwardation and a significant drop in price basis were indicators of market bottoms in 2018 and 2022. This implies that Bitcoin has not yet entered a capitulation phase.