Commodity Market Cycles: Gold, Copper, Oil, and Agriculture

Qinbafrank posted on X about the recurring patterns observed in commodity bull markets since 2008, highlighting a sequence of movements starting with precious metals and ending with agricultural products. The cycle typically begins with gold and silver gaining traction during periods of economic uncertainty, recession fears, or heightened geopolitical tensions. These metals serve as a safe haven due to their inflation-resistant and risk-averse properties. As global manufacturing enters a restocking phase and industrial recovery gains momentum, industrial metals like copper and aluminum follow suit, driven by warming demand and supply constraints. Subsequently, oil and petrochemical products take the lead, benefiting from industrial demand recovery and reflecting expectations of consumer spending resurgence, completing the midstream transmission chain of resource price rotation. Once the price increases in precious metals, industrial metals, and energy products are fully realized, and valuations reach high levels, the effects of these price hikes spread to the consumer sector. At this point, agricultural resources, closely tied to food security and consumer demand, often become the final focus of the commodity cycle, experiencing a strong rebound in prices. From this perspective, agricultural products are likely to become the next mainstay in the commodity market rotation.