Polymarket Predicts Low Probability of Trump Ending Iran Military Action by April 21

The probability of U.S. President Donald Trump announcing the end of military action against Iran by April 21 has significantly decreased to 21%, according to Odaily. This marks a 22% drop in the past 24 hours, with the total trading volume for this event contract nearing $17 million. The contract stipulates that if President Trump, the U.S. government, or the military officially announces the end of the military action initiated on February 28, 2026, by the specified date (Eastern Time), the market will resolve as 'yes.' Otherwise, it will resolve as 'no.' Valid statements must clearly indicate the end of the action. Informal statements, anonymous sources, or leaked information do not qualify. However, Trump's public written statements, such as posts on his "Truth Social" account, and videos on his social media accounts are considered valid. The primary basis for market resolution is official statements from the U.S. government and/or its representatives, with additional consideration given to consensus from other credible reports. On the first day of a temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, Israeli forces launched the largest airstrike against Hezbollah since the conflict began. Iran claimed this violated the ceasefire agreement, leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and threats of deterrent action against Israeli military targets. The White House announced that the first round of U.S.-Iran talks will take place on the 11th in Pakistan. However, Iran stated that three key ceasefire terms have been violated, undermining the "basis for negotiations." Despite this, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, confirmed that the Iranian delegation will attend the talks in Islamabad, Pakistan.