Polymarket Predicts Low Probability of Strait of Hormuz Normalization by April

The probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal operations by April 30 has significantly dropped to 30%, marking a 24% decrease over the past 24 hours. According to Odaily, the trading volume for this event contract has exceeded $15.86 million. The contract stipulates that if the International Monetary Fund's Portwatch reports a seven-day moving average of 60 or more ships arriving at the Strait of Hormuz on any date from the market's creation until May 31, 2026, the market will resolve as 'Yes.' Otherwise, it will resolve as 'No.' The daily count includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers, excluding those not reported by the IMF Portwatch. The decline in probability is attributed to the U.S. imposing a maritime blockade on Iran and making excessive demands in negotiations. Iran has not agreed to a new round of talks with the U.S., emphasizing that avoiding excessive demands is crucial for continuing negotiations. Iran has stated it is unwilling to engage in prolonged and meaningless discussions. Several ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz have turned back. The maritime intelligence company "Tanker Trackers" reported on social media that two Indian ships trying to cross the strait were forced to retreat by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy, with gunfire occurring during the incident.