Key Takeaways
Tom Lee believes the current crypto bear market is approaching its end.He said Ethereum has rebounded 41% from its February lows.Lee highlighted tokenization and AI as Ethereum’s two biggest long-term growth drivers.He argued that Ethereum has been one of the best-performing global assets since the Middle East conflict began.
Tom Lee Sees Signs of a Crypto Recovery
Tom Lee said there are growing indications that the recent “mini crypto winter” is close to ending.
According to Lee, Ethereum has rallied roughly 41% from its early February lows as fears around the Middle East conflict have gradually eased.
He added that Ethereum has outperformed the broader stock market since the war began, beating the S&P 500 by more than 2,280 basis points.
Ethereum Continues to Benefit From Two Major Narratives
Lee said Ethereum remains supported by two powerful long-term trends:
Wall Street’s growing push toward tokenizing traditional financial assets on blockchainsRising demand for neutral, public blockchain infrastructure for AI agents and autonomous systems
Ethereum has increasingly become the dominant network for stablecoins, tokenized funds and other real-world assets.
Major institutions including BlackRock, JPMorgan and Amundi have all launched tokenized products on Ethereum, reinforcing its position as the leading blockchain for institutional finance.
At the same time, Lee believes Ethereum could play an important role in future AI infrastructure, particularly as autonomous AI systems increasingly require open and neutral settlement layers.
Ethereum Viewed as a “Wartime Store of Value”
Lee also argued that Ethereum’s recent strength reflects its growing status as a “wartime store of value.”
While oil has been the best-performing major asset during the conflict, Ethereum has been among the strongest-performing non-energy assets globally since the Middle East tensions began.
Lee Expects a Shallower Downturn Than Previous Cycles
Many market participants believe the current crypto downturn could continue into late 2026.
However, Tom Lee said the current cycle may be less severe than previous crypto winters.
Since 2015, major crypto bear markets have typically coincided with stock market declines of at least 20%.
Lee noted that the 2025 crypto correction aligned with a roughly 20% decline in the S&P 500.
By contrast, he expects the current stock market pullback to remain relatively mild at around 8%, which could help support a faster recovery for crypto assets.