Morgan Stanley's recent entry into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market is seen by some observers as a potential catalyst to end the current crypto bear market, due to the firm's extensive $8 trillion wealth advisor network. According to ChainCatcher, Blockstream CEO and early Bitcoin community contributor Adam Back expressed skepticism about the immediate impact of this development.
Back, who was recently speculated by The New York Times to be Bitcoin's anonymous founder Satoshi Nakamoto—a claim he denies—emphasized that while the Bitcoin ETF represents a significant market signal, its influence may unfold more slowly than anticipated. He noted that institutional adoption tends to be gradual, and although ETFs have been purchased, fund managers have yet to allocate the suggested 2% to 4% in general stock portfolios, as advised by BlackRock.
Back explained that the process of building positions might take a year or even 18 months, as investors are unlikely to rush in overnight. He also highlighted the importance of considering Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle, which could still lead to price declines despite some commentators suggesting the cycle is breaking. The expectation of the cycle's occurrence often leads to selling, reinforcing its impact.
Regarding recent discussions on the potential threat of quantum computing advancements to Bitcoin cryptography, Back noted that institutions are more systematic in risk management, focusing on tail risks, while retail investors view it as a distant future concern.
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