CME FedWatch Shows 94.9% Probability of Fed Rate Hold in June After Powell's Final Meeting

05-01 20:23

Key Takeaways CME FedWatch data shows a 94.9% probability of the Fed holding rates unchanged at its June meetingThe probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in June has collapsed to just 5.1%The near-certain June hold follows the Fed's May decision to keep rates at 3.50%–3.75% amid elevated inflation and Middle East uncertainty Markets have almost entirely priced out the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, with CME FedWatch data showing a 94.9% probability of rates remaining unchanged at the next meeting, leaving just a 5.1% chance of a 25 basis point reduction. The reading represents a significant hawkish shift in near-term rate expectations, reflecting the Fed's May decision to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75% alongside Powell's acknowledgment that rising energy prices driven by the Iran conflict are pushing short-term inflation higher. With the Fed's own projections placing a return to the 2% inflation target at least a year away, markets appear to have accepted that the easing cycle remains firmly on pause. The near-zero probability of a June cut also aligns with the growing number of FOMC members shifting toward a neutral policy stance. Powell noted at his final press conference that the next meeting may consider removing the accommodative bias from the policy statement -- a signal that the Fed's forward guidance may actually tighten rather than soften at the June meeting. For crypto markets, a 94.9% probability of a June hold removes one of the near-term bullish catalysts that Bitcoin bulls had been counting on. Rate cut expectations have historically supported Bitcoin by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. With June now effectively ruled out, the next potential easing catalyst shifts further into the second half of 2026 -- contingent on inflation cooling and the Middle East energy shock subsiding.

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CME FedWatch Shows 94.9% Probability of Fed Rate Hold in June After Powell's Final Meeting

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