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7/ Hidden truth: the trader wasn’t unlucky This wasn’t bad luck. This wallet had: Negative payoff asymmetry No defined max loss per position No edge in efficient markets No probability discipline Loss was inevitable.

6/ Repeated all-in behavior This wallet repeatedly placed extremely large single-position bets on: NBA spreads Soccer favorites "High confidence" outcomes In markets where: Information is public Pricing is efficient Upside is capped Downside is total loss High confidence ≠

5/ No exits. No hedging. No damage control. Polymarket allows: Early exits Partial profit-taking Probability-based stop losses This trader used none of them. Most losing positions were held all the way to zero, even when prices collapsed long before resolution. That's not

4/ This wallet repeatedly paid a premium for consensus Across major losses: Buy prices clustered at 0.51 – 0.67 Most positions had: Upside: +50% to +90% Downside: –100% This is the worst payoff structure in Polymarket: capped upside + total loss downside