Tariff Policies May Lead To Inflation, But Fed Expected To Remain Patient

According to Odaily, the aggressive tariff policies of the Trump administration could result in further inflation. However, economic models suggest this would be a one-time increase in price levels rather than a prolonged inflationary spiral. Jay Bryson, an economist at Wells Fargo, believes this scenario might encourage the Federal Reserve to adopt a more patient approach in addressing tariff-induced inflation, especially given the ongoing slowdown in the labor market. Bryson's perspective aligns with Wells Fargo's baseline expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three more times this year, each by 25 basis points. Nonetheless, Bryson cautions that if the trade war becomes more protracted, with a series of retaliatory international measures, the Federal Reserve may need to take the inflationary consequences more seriously.