According to CoinDesk, a key momentum indicator for Bitcoin, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram, has turned negative, coinciding with U.S. President Donald Trump's recent tariff announcements. This development has raised concerns among investors, although there is no immediate cause for alarm.
The MACD histogram is a tool used to assess trend strength and changes by comparing Bitcoin's average price over the past 26 weeks with the average over the past 12 weeks. A bearish shift is indicated when the MACD crosses below zero, while a bullish trend is suggested when it crosses above zero. The indicator turned positive in mid-October, supporting predictions of a rally to $100,000. Despite the current bearish signal, Bitcoin's price remains within a range of $90,000 to $100,000, with recent movements narrowing to between $95,000 and $100,000. This range-bound trading reduces the impact of the MACD's negative crossover.
It is important to note that indicators like the MACD are derived from price action and should be confirmed by actual price movements. The bullish signal in October was validated by Bitcoin breaking out of a prolonged trading range. However, several macroeconomic factors, including Trump's tariff rhetoric, could introduce volatility and test Bitcoin's support near $90,000. A breach of this level would confirm the MACD's bearish momentum shift.
President Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, with additional duties to be revealed later. He also hinted at higher tariffs on goods from the European Union. This tariff threat has already affected consumer expectations, as reflected in the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey, which showed inflation expectations rising to 4.3% in February from 3.3% in January, the highest since November 2023.
These developments could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Alfonso Peccatiello, author of Macro Compass, noted that inflation swaps are pricing in a risk premium around tariffs, suggesting that the Fed may not rush to cut rates even if inflation falls to 2%. The upcoming U.S. consumer price index report for January, scheduled for release on February 12, will provide further insights into inflation trends.
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