According to CoinDesk, the recent resolution of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) case against Ripple has sparked excitement among XRP enthusiasts. Ripple, which uses XRP for cross-border transactions, saw the case's conclusion as a significant relief, potentially paving the way for improved performance. The legal battle had previously hindered XRP during the 2021 bull run. Additionally, there is growing anticipation around the possibility of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) and hopes that the token might become part of the U.S. strategic reserve.
Despite this optimism, XRP's recent price action has not mirrored the enthusiasm. The token remains rangebound between $2.30 and $2.50, with key momentum indicators suggesting a potential bearish trend shift. Last Wednesday, XRP surged over 11% to $2.59 following the SEC news. However, the subsequent price movement has been less bullish, even as expectations rise that U.S. President Donald Trump's anticipated reciprocal trade tariffs on April 2 might be more moderate than initially feared.
The three-line break chart, a tool that filters out short-term noise to identify trend changes, is signaling a bearish trend reversal for XRP. This chart, which aggregates price information over a week, has shown a new red bar early this month, indicating a bearish momentum shift. Such patterns have previously marked the onset of prolonged bear markets in 2021 and early 2018.
Further reinforcing the bearish outlook, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram is showing deeper bars below the zero line on the weekly chart, indicating strengthening downside momentum. The MACD flipped positive in November, leading to a price surge from $1 to above $3. However, the 5- and 10-week simple moving averages (SMAs) have crossed bearishly, suggesting that the path of least resistance is downward.
Additionally, the Bollinger Bands, which measure volatility, have widened following a sharp price rally in late 2024 and early 2025. Historically, such widening has preceded price declines, as seen after mid-2021 and early 2018. For a bullish outlook to re-emerge, XRP would need to firmly move to $3, negating the current lower highs pattern. Some analysts remain optimistic, predicting that XRP could reach as high as $10 by the end of the decade.
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Hui Xin
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