Experts Debate the Future of Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Amid Market Changes

According to Cointelegraph, the traditional four-year bull and bear cycles of the crypto market, often linked to Bitcoin halving events, are being scrutinized by industry analysts and experts. Jason Williams, an author and investor, recently highlighted on X that top Bitcoin treasury companies collectively hold nearly one million Bitcoin, suggesting that the established cycle may be ending. Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, echoed similar sentiments in a CNBC article, indicating that while the cycle's conclusion isn't official until positive returns are seen in 2026, he believes the cycle is over. Historically, Bitcoin's price peaks have occurred in the year following a halving, with notable highs in 2013, 2017, 2021, and potentially again in 2025. Harry Collins, Bluefin community lead, anticipates a bull market peak in October, reinforcing the notion that the cycle might be shifting. Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, also expressed on X that the four-year cycles are likely over, noting that Bitcoin halvings are less impactful on trading dynamics as most BTC has already been mined. He emphasized that demand now stems from various sources, including retail, ETPs, and treasury companies. Martin Burgherr, Chief Clients Officer at Sygnum Bank, shared with Cointelegraph that while the four-year halving cycle remains a useful reference, it is no longer the sole driver of market behavior. As the market matures, factors such as macroeconomic conditions, institutional capital flows, regulatory developments, and ETF adoption have gained influence. Burgherr noted that the four-year framework is becoming one of several inputs rather than the central script for market trends. However, not all experts agree with this perspective. Crypto analyst 'CRYPTO₿IRB' argued to his X followers that dismissing the four-year cycle is incorrect, citing that ETFs have reinforced these cycles due to their alignment with traditional finance's four-year presidential cycles. He also pointed out that Bitcoin's halving events are mathematically programmed and cannot be canceled. Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, told Cointelegraph in July that the risk of a prolonged bear market remains, and the cyclical nature of Bitcoin is still intact. Rocca expressed skepticism about claims that institutional involvement has ended Bitcoin's cyclical patterns, suggesting that the traditional cycle may still hold relevance.