Crypto News Today: Volatility Vanishes Across Markets Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

Key PointsMarket volatility across stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin has fallen to multi-year lows.Traders expect 25 bps Fed rate cut in September after an 8-month pause.Analysts warn markets may be too complacent, with sticky inflation and trade risks still looming.A wave of calm has swept across global markets as investors brace for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, running Aug. 21–23.Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility has plunged to near two-year lows (~36%), according to Volmex and Deribit indices.Gold volatility (GVZ) dropped to 15.22%, its lowest since January.The MOVE index (Treasuries) touched a 3.5-year low, while Wall Street’s VIX fell below 14%, sharply lower than April highs near 45%.Why It MattersMarkets are pricing in the resumption of Fed rate cuts in September, with expectations of a 25 basis point reduction, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. JPMorgan forecasts the Fed funds rate could fall to 3.25%–3.5% by Q1 2026, down from 4.25%.Commentators note this easing cycle differs from past crises — cuts are coming from restrictive levels, with real rates still positive. This dynamic has fueled record highs in both equities and crypto.Caution Flags: Complacency RiskNot everyone is convinced the calm will last:Sticky inflation and Trump’s tariff policies threaten growth.Corporate bond spreads are at their narrowest since 2007, prompting Goldman Sachs to urge hedging.Analysts warn that volatility is mean-reverting, suggesting today’s calm could precede turbulence.Edward Jones strategist Angelo Kourkafas said Powell’s remarks could “validate high expectations” for September cuts, but also cautioned that the path may be uneven as the Fed balances inflation risks with slowing labor markets.