Bitcoin price faces turbulence as whales, order-book manipulation, Fed policy, and Ukraine peace talks dominate the macro and crypto landscape.Bitcoin (BTC) started the new week with fresh volatility, dropping to around $114,971 after sliding more than $10,000 from its record high above $124,500. While dip-buying interest is visible, traders warn that odds of a breakout have diminished.Here are the five key factors shaping BTC price action this week.1. Rising Wedge Breakdown Reduces Breakout OddsTechnical analysts say Bitcoin has confirmed a rising wedge breakdown, a classic bearish pattern. Popular trader Crypto Tony flagged the move, noting that BTC is unlikely to sustain a near-term rally.Trading firm Material Indicators added that Bitcoin faces a “pretty solid” down signal, reducing the probability of a breakout. Key levels to watch:Support: $112,000Resistance for recovery: $120,0002. Market Manipulation or Dip Buying?Trader CrypNuevo argued that Bitcoin’s sharp sell-off, which triggered $1 billion in liquidations within 24 hours, was likely engineered by a large buyer.He claimed that a “hand bought all those liquidations” to accumulate BTC at lower levels. This suggests that consolidation around $114,000–$120,000 may precede another leg higher.3. Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium LoomsAll eyes are on the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver remarks on Friday. Markets are weighing weak labor data against persistent inflation, with Powell under pressure from both Wall Street and Washington.Trading firm Mosaic Asset noted that investors will seek clues on whether the Fed is preparing to cut rates — a decision that could heavily influence Bitcoin and other risk assets.4. Russia–Ukraine Peace Hopes Stir MarketsGeopolitical risk adds another layer of uncertainty. US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy this week, with markets already “pricing in” a potential peace deal.Analysts say a resolution could spark risk-asset rallies, possibly offsetting Bitcoin’s technical weakness in the short term.5. Coinbase Premium Diverges From Price ActionDespite the sell-off, the Coinbase Premium Index remains strongly positive, signaling persistent US demand.On-chain firm CryptoQuant observed that the premium’s resilience contrasts with BTC’s drop — a “strange” divergence noted by trader Cas Abbe, who suggested that large institutions or Michael Saylor’s firm Strategy may be quietly accumulating.End of Price Discovery Uptrend?Analyst Rekt Capital warned that Bitcoin’s price discovery uptrend phase often ends between weeks 6–8. With the current uptrend now in week 7, historical patterns suggest caution.If BTC fails to reclaim $120,000, traders expect further downside toward $110,000. Still, strong demand signals and macro tailwinds mean volatility — not capitulation — may define Bitcoin’s trajectory this week.
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