Key TakeawaysXRP price drops 0.35% to $2.97860, underperforming Bitcoin’s +0.73% gain$610M Ripple treasury transfer sparks concerns of OTC sales and near-term dilutionResistance at $3.05 holds firm, with 4 failed breakout attempts this week XRP Price Slides as Profit-Taking Follows Treasury MovementXRP price fell 0.81% today, trading at $2.97860, despite broader crypto market strength led by Bitcoin’s 0.73% gain. The move comes largely triggered by a Ripple treasury transfer of 200M XRP (worth $610M) on October 6.While such movements are often part of liquidity management, the market interpreted this one as a potential OTC dump signal, especially with XRP already facing resistance at $3.10. Whale behavior confirmed this view, with over $300M in XRP disposals recorded during the session. XRP Technical Indicators Show Weak Momentum, Range-Bound PriceTechnical analysis reflects growing indecision. XRP’s price range spanned just 3% on the day — from $2.97 low to $3.05 high — with buyers repeatedly stepping in at the $2.99 support level. However, momentum indicators are mixed:Relative Strength Index (14): 52.63 – NeutralMACD Level (12, 26): 0.00916While MACD offers a potential bullish divergence, the broader oscillator set shows low confidence in short-term upside. Awesome Oscillator and Average Directional Index (ADX, 13.55) also remain neutral, signaling range-bound movement.Source: TradingViewMoving Averages Offer Bullish Structure — But No Breakout YetDespite short-term weakness, moving averages remain bullish across the board, suggesting that XRP is still in an accumulation phase.This suggests buyers continue to support the asset above key levels, especially around $2.94–$2.99. The 20-day EMA has also begun to turn upward, reinforcing bullish momentum — but the lack of volume at breakout zones shows hesitation.Source: TradingViewETF Uncertainty, Macro Events Shape XRP SentimentXRP's bearish retail sentiment has spiked, with Santiment data showing the Bullish/Bearish ratio falling to 0.74, its lowest since April 2025. Historically, such extreme FUD often precedes strong rebounds — XRP rallied +38% from similar sentiment levels in late 2024.Market attention now shifts to:Oct 19 - SEC ETF deadlines, with over 70 crypto ETFs pending, including seven XRP-specific applicationsOct 29 - FOMC meeting, with markets pricing a 96% chance of a rate cut, potentially injecting liquidity into risk assets like XRP Levels to Watch: What is the Outlook for XRP?$2.99 remains the key short-term support, validated by repeated defenses and whale absorption patterns.A break above $3.05 could trigger a bullish continuation, targeting $3.10, then $3.40 and $3.66 if the descending triangle pattern invalidates.Failure to hold above $2.94 (20-day EMA) could lead to further consolidation or downside testing.Traders are closely monitoring whale alerts, Ripple's Q4 escrow unlocks, and institutional flows into XRP-related products for signs of renewed buying pressure.
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