A key market indicator is flashing a warning for Bitcoin, suggesting that underlying weakness could soon push prices below the $100,000 threshold if momentum fails to recover.Bitcoin’s Volume Signal Points to Potential BreakdownThe On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator — long regarded as the “grand daddy” of volume metrics — has fallen to its lowest level since April, signaling that market demand may be losing strength.OBV measures the running total of an asset’s trading volume, adding volume on days when price closes higher and subtracting it when price closes lower. Traders often use it to confirm trends or identify early signs of reversals.When prices move sideways but OBV breaks its own range, the indicator often predicts the direction of the next breakout. That’s exactly what Bitcoin’s OBV has just done — breaking below its multi-month range even as prices remain above $100,000.This divergence between price and volume suggests weakening accumulation and potential exhaustion among buyers.Weakening Momentum and Key Support LevelsBitcoin has held above $100,000 for the past four months, currently trading around $108,000, but multiple indicators point to fragile momentum.The OBV drop aligns with other bearish signals, including a declining MACD histogram that continues to deepen below the zero line, indicating rising downside pressure.BTC also remains below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) — a critical short-term trend line — and is hovering dangerously close to support near $107,300, a level that previously triggered a rebound in late August.A decisive breakdown below that area could shift focus to $99,200, the June low that marks the next major support zone. Conversely, a recovery above the 50-day SMA would be the first sign that bulls are regaining control.What the OBV Drop Means for TradersThe latest decline in OBV implies that selling pressure has intensified even as price stability has persisted. This pattern typically precedes stronger directional moves, often to the downside if selling volume dominates.If Bitcoin’s price follows historical patterns, a close below $107,000 could accelerate the correction, potentially driving BTC below the $100,000 psychological level before the next accumulation phase begins.However, if OBV begins to recover while price holds current levels, it could signal renewed buying interest and the formation of a long-term base for Bitcoin’s next leg higher.Bullish Base or Bear Trap?For now, traders are watching whether Bitcoin can defend its $100K floor and reclaim momentum before sellers take control. The next few days of trading — particularly the reaction to macro data and ETF inflows — will determine whether this OBV warning evolves into a deeper correction or becomes a classic bear trap.Until OBV stabilizes and Bitcoin reclaims its 50-day average, the path of least resistance appears to lean lower.
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