Bitcoin News Today: BTC Price Rebounds Nearly 4% Amid Macro Relief

Key TakeawaysBitcoin price rises 3.94% to $106,430 as U.S. government shutdown resolution boosts risk sentimentInstitutional sentiment improves after Kynikos Associates closes its short position on Strategy (MSTR)Analysts eye $108,500 resistance as the next major test for sustained bullish momentum Technical Indicators Signal StabilizationAccording to the latest oscillator and moving average data, Bitcoin’s technical picture shows a mixed but stabilizing trend:Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum after recent volatility.The MACD Level (12, 26) is at -2,379, showing mild downward divergence, while Momentum (10) at -3,323 reflects a short-term recovery phase.Source: TradingViewWhat the moving averages show:The Exponential Moving Average (10) stands at 105,300, while the Simple Moving Average (10) is 105,024, both below the current market price — a potential early bullish crossover signal.The 50-day EMA at 110,264 and 100-day SMA at 113,160 act as overhead resistance levels to monitor.Source: TradingViewAnalysts note that sustained closes above $108,500, a key on-chain resistance, would confirm renewed bullish momentum. Institutional Flows and Market Sentiment ImprovingMacro and equity market factors also fueled the rally. Kynikos Associates, led by James Chanos, announced it had closed its short position on Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate Bitcoin holding public company, after its premium to NAV fell from 2.0x in July to 1.23x.The decision was viewed as a sentiment shift among institutional traders, suggesting that bearish positions in Bitcoin-linked equities are unwinding.Meanwhile, analysts highlighted that the next Bitcoin bear market is likely to be less severe, projecting a potential downside range of $55,000-$70,000, a normal cyclical retracement. On-Chain Trends and Long-Term OutlookOn-chain data also show that long-term Bitcoin holders are reallocating capital into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), citing tax advantages and portfolio diversification.Despite recent whale sell-offs, including movements from Satoshi-era addresses, Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) remains around 13%, reflecting a maturing asset with declining volatility and deeper liquidity.Experts are also arguing that Bitcoin is now entering its “IPO phase”, in which it may fluctuate and consolidate within a narrow range for anywhere between 0.5-2.5 years before starting a new upward trend. Outlook: Key Levels to WatchMarket analysts are watching $108,500 as immediate resistance, followed by $112,000 near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break above these zones could open the path toward $115,000–$118,000.On the downside, the $105,000–$103,800 range forms the near-term support corridor, aligning with short-term moving averages.As macro conditions stabilize and institutional buying pressure returns, Bitcoin’s short-term outlook appears cautiously optimistic, though traders remain alert to upcoming Fed rate decisions and ETF inflow data. Summary:Bitcoin’s climb to $106,430 reflects a blend of macro relief, technical recovery, and institutional repositioning. While indicators remain largely neutral, the market shows growing signs of bullish momentum—with the next major test set at $108,500.