据 Glassnode 称，有几个因素导致当前的加密货币熊市成为有记录以来最糟糕的市场，因为大多数比特币交易员都在水下并继续亏本出售。
区块链分析公司 Glassnode 的 6 月 24 日报告 标题 具有历史意义的熊 概述了比特币当前跌破 200 天移动平均线 (MA)、与已实现价格的负偏差以及已实现净损失如何共同导致 2022 年成为比特币历史上最糟糕的一年。
“在此期间，比特币和以太坊的交易价格均低于其前一个周期的 ATH，这在历史上尚属首次。 “
熊市的第一个也是最明显的迹象是现货价格比特币 (BTC) 跌破 200 日均线和更极端的情况，即 200 周均线。为了强调当前的价格水平是多么罕见，Glassnode 表明，在 2022 年熊市期间，比特币已跌破 200 日均线水平的一半。
Glassnode 还表明，自 2015 年以来从未发生过 Mayer 倍数 (MM) 跌破 0.5 的情况。MM 因素会影响 200 日均线上方和下方的价格变化，以显示超买或超卖情况。报告指出，“4160 个交易日中只有 84 个 (2%) 的收盘 MM 值低于 0.5。”
“历史上第一次，2021-22 周期的 MM 值 (0.487) 低于上一个周期的低点 (0.511)。”
确认当前市场状况的严重性是现货价格低于已实现价格，这迫使交易员越来越多地亏本出售他们的代币。 Glassnode 指出，这种级联效应是“熊市和市场投降的典型特征”。
Glassnode 表示，现货价格低于实际价格的情况并不常见，并指出这只是过去六年中的第三次，也是自 2009 年比特币推出以来的第五次。
“现货价格目前比实际价格折让 11.3%，这表明普通市场参与者现在处于低位。”
Glassnode 的模型说明了这一事件的罕见性，该模型显示所有比特币交易日中只有 13.9% 的现货价格跌破实际价格。
投资者将损失锁定在市值最大的加密货币上，加剧了这些情况。什么时候比特币跌破20,000美元 标记在 2022 年 6 月，Glassnode 写道比特币 投资者锁定了“历史上以美元计价的最大每日已实现损失”。
“投资者在一天内共同锁定了 -$4.234B 的损失，比 2021 年中期创下的 $3.457B 的先前记录增加了 22.5%。”
考虑到所有负面指标，Glassnode 评估市场正处于投降事件之中。 Cointelegraph 在 6 月 24 日证实了这一评估，指出矿工开始抛售 他们的筹码是投降已经发生的另一个指标。此类事件通常表示周期的底部价格范围。
根据数据，BTC 目前较 2021 年 11 月的高点下跌 70%，交易价格为 21,207 美元币虎 .
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