来自历史的角度 ，过去几个月整个加密货币市场实现的价值损失已成为记录簿之一，加密货币总市值已从 3 万亿美元下降至 9.91 亿美元。
在比特币价格下跌之后，6 月对投资者来说尤其痛苦（比特币 ) 根据加密货币研究公司 Delphi Digital 最近的一份报告，下跌近 40%，成为有记录以来最糟糕的日历月之一。
鉴于强劲的市场调整，许多 BTC 价格和链上指标已开始达到与之前市场底部相似的水平，但这并不意味着交易者应该期待很快出现转机，因为历史表明疲软可能会持续数月之久。
影响加密货币和其他风险资产的最重要因素之一是美元的强势。
结合通胀上升和经济指标下降，DXY 强势表明经济放缓几乎不可避免，现在的预测预测 2023 年初至中期将出现衰退。
在这种背景下，BTC 现在发现自己正试图在 20,000 美元附近的 2017 年周期高点附近形成局部底部，这是“高时间框架比特币图表上最后一个明确的结构性支撑”。
当前周期标志着比特币历史上首次跌破上一个牛市周期创下的历史高位。如果 BTC 未能保持在 20,000 美元附近的支撑位，Delphi Digital 指出预期的“支撑位约为 15,000 美元，如果该水平未能保持，则为 9,000 美元至 12,000 美元。”
虽然这些估计可能看起来很悲观，但应该指出的是，在前两个主要熊市中，BTC 价格从高峰到低谷都下跌了大约 85%。
如果在当前的熊市周期中发生同样的情况，那将使 BTC 达到 10,000 美元，标志着从当前水平再下跌 50% 并与 2018 年至 2019 年的价格区间保持一致。
出于这个原因，Delphi Digital 的分析师认为，“风险资产仍然面临更多痛苦。”
根据 Delphi Digital 的说法，在利润中持有的比特币供应量百分比和比特币的已实现损益率接近以往熊市期间的水平，但在达到本周期的低点之前，两者都有“更多的空间”。
据该公司称，“动能指标和估值指标可能会在很长一段时间内保持超卖或低估”，这使它们成为“糟糕的时机工具”，无法预测立即逆转。
逆势投资者可能还希望关注市场情绪以及现已跌至历史低位的恐惧与贪婪指数。
当谈到潜在的上行趋势时，Delphi Digital 表示“由于 3AC 之后的清算级联，BTC 有更高的空间”，并将下一个主要阻力位确定为 28,000 美元。
德尔福数码表示，
“在我们获得某种宏观催化剂之前，BTC 可能会继续整合。”
此处表达的观点和意见仅代表作者个人观点，并不一定反映 Cointelegraph.com 的观点。每一项投资和交易都涉及风险，您在做出决定时应该进行自己的研究。
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