比特币一直处于其最长的下跌趋势之一。虽然最近一直在复苏，但还没有足够的上涨动能来真正保证市场可能走向另一波牛市反弹。相反，熊市趋势继续走强，引发了对何时触底的猜测。这也引发了一个问题，即如果数字资产尚未触底，其价格可能会跌至多低。
当试图确定比特币等数字资产可能下跌的幅度时，查看该资产过去的走势通常会很有帮助。对于比特币，鉴于加密货币已经存在了十多年，不难查看其历史数据。尽管它相对年轻，但在分析其运动模式时，其之前的市场走势继续提供大量数据。
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继之前的牛市之后，比特币的价格跌幅远低于预期。一个例子是在 2017 年牛市之后，数字资产的价格达到了近 20,000 美元。随之而来的是一个持续三年的旷日持久的熊市。在此期间，数字资产的价格将从历史高位下跌 80% 以上，最低触及 3,000 美元，跌幅达 84%。
BTC延续复苏趋势|来源：TradingView.com 上的 BTCUSD
在 2013/2014 牛市期间也是如此，当时价格在最高点触及 1,100 美元以上，随后跌至最低点不到 150 美元。鉴于此，比特币的当前价格可能不会是熊市趋势的终结。
鉴于上述分析，比特币在不久的将来可能会出现进一步的下跌趋势。这是考虑到市场确实会进入一个全面的熊市。这意味着当前趋势的底部可能不是人们普遍认为的 20,000 美元。
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如果比特币遵循其之前的价格走势，则从历史高位下跌 80% 将意味着该数字资产在熊市结束前将至少触及 13,000 美元。这将远低于对数字资产的预期。
尽管如此，比特币继续抵御空头。周一早上，数字资产再次升至 30,000 美元以上，预计在交易周开始后会有更多动力，该加密货币可能正在测试 35,000 美元。
来自 DailyFX 的特色图片，来自 TradingView.com 的图表
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