今晚，美国CPI和FOMC议息会议将先后上演，前后间隔不超过6个小时。非农之后，可能又要迎来一个惊魂之夜。
由于利率决定本身几乎没有悬念（将在6月政策会议上维持利率不变），现在几乎所有的目光都将集中在会议的点阵图指引上。
结果大致分以下三种情形：
基准情形：在更新的点阵图中，2024年末中位数为两次降息
鸽派情形：在更新的点阵图中，2024年末中位数为三次降息
鹰派情形：在更新的点阵图中，2024年末中位数为一次降息
图1 2023年12月和2024年3月点阵图
三种情形中基准情形概率最大。根据上一次3月FOMC会议的投票结果，年内3次以上降息与2次以下降息的得票比为10：9，考虑近期美联储官员偏鹰的表述，年内点阵图减少一次为基准场景。<span yes'; mso-bidi- font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">
近期美联储官员的讲话内容如下：<span yes'; mso-bidi- font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">
表1 近期美联储官员观点整理
目前，主要外资金融机构预测结果为：2024年点阵图上调25bp（年内降息2次），关于年内降息次数和首次降息时间的差异分歧较大。
表2 部分外资金融机构预测
关于中长期点阵图，如果2024年点阵图上移，长期或中性利率点阵图中值可能会进一步上升；按照基准场景，2025 年和 2026 年的中位数点阵图也可能同步小幅上移约25个基点。
会议声明可能与5月相比变化不大，会后的新闻发布会可能是关注重点。新闻媒体可能直接向鲍威尔提问，从鲍威尔的回答和措辞可以获得更多信息。5月FOMC会议上，鲍威尔驳斥了“再次加息”的可能，成为会议的焦点。在5月会后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔主席一定被认为是鸽派的。
但最可能的场景是，鲍威尔主席在新闻发布会上提供与近期美联储讲话类似的基调：即，下一步行动可能是降息，但考虑通胀数据粘性，强调要保持耐心。
经济预测更可能偏向于下行：5月以来，美国经济数据普遍弱于预期。美国一季度GDP已经出现下调、近期零售、工业产出、PMI、JOLTS职位空缺、ADP就业人数等数据普遍调整，非农就业人数虽超预期，但前月数据下修、家庭调查失业率连续上升，仍使得今年的增长预测可能会出现小幅下调。
通胀方面的信息可能与早几个小时公布CPI密切相关。虽然CPI仅比FOMC会议早几个小时公布，但政策制定者很有可能已经对通胀心里有数，从近期通胀分项看，核心服务和住房分项的粘性仍是影响通胀的关键。
以下各外资行CPI预测供参考：
表3 外资金融机构5月CPI预测
如果事情朝着基准行情的方向发展，外汇市场大概率不会从本周美联储议息会议中得到太多的信息。
但如果今晚的CPI数据超出预期，进而导致了一个“偏鹰”的FOMC结果，可能使得市场变得恐慌起来，开始交易“年内不降息”，目前市场隐含的1-2次的降息预期，可能快速降至1次以内；从市场反应来看，美元指数与美债收益率将快速上行，美指可能挑战106前高。
如果CPI数据偏弱，我们预期FOMC会议给出的信息偏向中性的概率更大，至少对会后鲍威尔新闻发布会上讲话态度产生影响，届时市场继续在区间内交易市场震荡的概率更大。
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