作者：Ben Strack，Block；编译：白水，金色财经
一段时间以来，我一直通过电子邮件获取 Ledn 首席信息官 John Glover 的比特币价格技术分析。
但我终于能够在数字资产峰会上亲自见到他。
Glover 曾担任道明证券和巴克莱银行董事总经理，他使用艾略特波浪理论（研究与投资者情绪和心理变化相关的价格模式）来预测 BTC 价格。
本质上，该理论是这样的：一个流动性很强的市场将以五波的形式向主要趋势方向移动（三个“动机”阶段推动价格上涨，中间有两个向下的“修正”阶段）。然后有三波与该趋势相反。
交易员有时会将此理论与其他技术分析结合使用，以确定可能的进入和退出点。
根据Glover 的说法，上周，我们可能接近了这一更广泛的 BTC 价格上涨趋势中的第四波（下跌趋势）的尾声，该趋势始于 2023 年，价格约为 16,000 美元。他指出，市场并没有被唐纳德·特朗普在上周的会议上发表的支持加密货币的言论所打动。
自 2023 年 1 月以来的 BTC 表现。来源：TradingView。
无论第四波是否正式结束，Glover 预计第五波将导致 BTC 价格在 2026 年第一季度上涨至 130,000 至 135,000 美元之间。
除了具体的价格水平之外，我问 Glover 人们如何看待比特币——对某些人来说是避风港，对另一些人来说是风险资产。
“尽管我们拥有深厚的流动性，但 [比特币] 的参与者还不够多，他们还没有完全了解它是什么并形成了这种观点，”他说。
那些相信 BTC 是“数字黄金”（和通胀对冲工具）的人可能会在价格下跌时增加他们的比特币 ETF 头寸。那些担心 BTC 升至约 109,000 美元只是“特朗普大涨”结果的人可能会惊慌失措地退出。
“对我来说，[比特币] 是数字黄金，一旦越来越多的传统金融参与者加入，它将开始更密切地跟踪黄金，”Glover 补充道。
近五分之一的受访金融顾问没有为客户分配加密货币，计划在 2025 年增加这种敞口（是前一年 8% 的两倍多）。但那些尚未承诺的人可能会希望在他们之前看到 BTC 再次上涨，Glover 说。
这些往往是更棘手的头寸。
“如果人们的投资组合中有它，我认为他们不会因为价格回调而惊慌失措，”Glover 说。“我想他们会说，‘好吧，它只占我投资组合的 1%，我很乐意长期持有它。’”
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