Polymarket bettors are 24% less confident Telegram CEO Pavel Durov will deliver in August

Bettors on Polymarket, a decentralized blockchain predictions platform, are giving Telegram CEO Pavel Durov just a 24% chance of being released from detention by 31st August.

The odds have dropped significantly from 50% after Durov's arrest in Paris over the weekend, reflecting increasing doubt about his immediate release.

Odds on whether Pavel Durov will be released in August source: polymarket

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Polymarket Predictions

Polymarket allows users to bet on various outcomes, with a simple mechanism: correct predictions result in profit, while incorrect ones lead to losses. The fluctuating odds on Durov's release reflect users’ shifting expectations, influenced by the complexities of the French judicial process.

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Background of Durov's Arrest

Durov, a multi-national citizen with ties to Russia, France, the UAE, and Saint Kitts and Nevis, was arrested as part of a broader investigation led by France's National Anti-Fraud Office.

He faces allegations related to his platform's failure to moderate illegal activities, including terrorism, drug trafficking, and fraud.

These accusations, which Telegram calls "absurd," have led to Durov being deemed a potential flight risk due to his wealth and dual nationality.

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Legal Implications

Under French law, Durov can be held for 96 hours before a judge must decide whether to extend his detention. Despite Telegram's defence that the platform complies with EU laws, including the Digital Services Act, French authorities remain focused on the severity of the allegations.

Public and Market Reactions

The market's scepticism on Polymarket underscores the growing belief that Durov's legal troubles may not resolve quickly. As more details emerge, the odds may shift again, but for now, bettors are preparing for a prolonged legal battle.