The rise of the far right in Europe: Trouble is coming for France, Germany, and the United States! Macron’s bet, Putin has finally waited for this moment

On June 9, the European Parliament elections produced a major shift, with far-right parties gaining more seats than center-left parties in major EU countries. The unexpected development has caused concern in France, Germany and Italy, where right-wing parties have made significant gains.

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The rise of the far right

In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally won more than 30% of the vote in the European Parliament elections, doubling the support of President Emmanuel Macron’s Ennahda party. Similarly, Italian Prime Minister Meroni’s Brothers of Italy party won more than 25% of the vote. Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany party won more than 15% of the vote, despite its controversial candidate.

Europe’s rightward shift is not new. For years, right-wing parties in Europe have been marginalized and labeled as extreme nationalists. Leaders such as Le Pen and Meroni have advocated for Europe to distance itself from the transatlantic alliance and engage in dialogue with Putin on Ukraine, a position that some see as pragmatic.

The decline of the center-left

Center-left parties struggled, with Germany’s Social Democratic Party winning just 14.1% of the vote. The trend reflects a general decline in the influence of the European left, which has been evident since the right’s victory in the Netherlands last year.

The rise of right-wing nationalism poses a challenge to the European Union and its relationship with the United States. Right-wing parties across Europe are skeptical of the EU and transatlantic relations, which could lead to increased internal conflicts within the EU and between Europe and the United States.

What are European far-right and center-left parties?

Major far-right parties:

• National Rally in France
• Northern League in Italy
• Alternative for Germany in Germany
• Fidesz in Hungary
• Party of Liberalism in the Netherlands

Positions and views:

1. Anti-immigration and nationalism: Far-right parties are generally strongly opposed to large-scale immigration, especially from Muslim countries, and advocate strict immigration control and border security.

2. Anti-EU and sovereignism: Many far-right parties are critical of the EU, believing that the EU has eroded national sovereignty, advocating a reduction in the EU's power, and some even support withdrawal from the EU.

3. Conservative social policies: On social issues, far-right parties tend to hold conservative positions, opposing same-sex marriage, abortion, etc.

4. Economic nationalism: On economic policies, far-right parties often support the protection of domestic industries, oppose globalization and free trade, and advocate giving priority to the interests of their own citizens.

Main center-left parties in Europe:

• Social Democratic Party of Germany
• Labour Party of Britain
• Socialist Party of France
• Spanish Socialist Workers Party of Spain
• Social Democratic Labour Party of Sweden

Positions and views:

1. Social justice and equality: Center-left parties emphasize social fairness, are committed to reducing social inequality, and support the redistribution of wealth through taxation and public services.

2. Support for immigration and multiculturalism: Center-left parties generally support more open immigration policies, emphasize multicultural values ​​and social inclusion.

3. Pro-EU: Most center-left parties support the EU and believe that the EU is an important platform for promoting peace, economic cooperation and social progress.

4. Environmental protection and sustainable development: Center-left parties attach importance to environmental protection and sustainable development, and support policies to address climate change, such as renewable energy development and reducing carbon emissions.

5. Social liberalism: On social issues, center-left parties generally hold a liberal stance and support same-sex marriage, gender equality, abortion rights, etc.

These differences in positions and views reflect the basic values ​​and policy priorities of different parties in the European political spectrum.

Intensification of internal political struggles

In response to the election results, President Macron called for the dissolution of the French National Assembly and new elections to curb the influence of Le Pen's party. Meanwhile, Ursula von der Leyen is under pressure within the European Commission and her party is considering an alliance with the far right, which has drawn criticism from German Chancellor Scholz.

As European countries focus more on internal political struggles, their ability to resolve external issues such as the Ukrainian conflict may be weakened. This situation favors leaders like Putin, who tend to engage with the European right. Trump's possible re-election may further accelerate changes in US-EU relations and the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict before 2025.

Impact on global dynamics

Next, we will discuss the rise of right-wing forces in Europe and their possible impact. This is undoubtedly bad news for the Western camp, as the rise of the right will intensify their internal disputes. Although the right-wing of each country may differ in specific policies, their positions are consistent in emphasizing national national attributes, opposing the transatlantic partnership, and opposing the European Union.

Looking back at the collapse of the Soviet Union, right-wing nationalist forces played an important role in it. The fall of the Soviet Union was the result of the joint action of liberalism and nationalism. Since then, the United States has mastered the discourse power, deliberately ignored the influence of nationalism, and relied on liberalism and Europe's "common values" to maintain the alliance for decades. However, this situation is finally being bitten back by the right wing. The rise of the European right, if coupled with the possible election of Trump, will bring many dramatic changes to the world in the next few years, both within Europe and between the United States and Europe. For example, after the results of the European Parliament elections were announced, Macron immediately announced the dissolution of the French National Assembly and re-election.

Macron's bet

Why? Because in the French National Assembly, the National Rally is a minority party, but it defeated Macron's Renaissance Party in the European Parliament elections. In the future, no matter what policies Macron implements, Le Pen can claim to be a true representative of the people and compete with Macron. Macron re-held the National Assembly elections to stop Le Pen's momentum in advance.

Unlike the European Parliament elections, the French National Assembly elections are not direct voting, but require a pre-procedure, that is, candidates must obtain more than half of the votes in the first round of voting to enter the second round of runoffs. Many of Le Pen's "extreme right-wing" members will find it difficult to pass half of this stage. Macron is betting that the centrists he leads can still win after the National Assembly elections. Von der Leyen's performance is even more interesting. In order to stabilize her position, the party behind her began to contact the extreme right, trying to join forces to push von der Leyen to power. As a result, she was warned by Scholz that Europe does not need a far-right European Commission president, otherwise the European Parliament may reject her appointment.

From Macron to von der Leyen, major European countries will focus more and more on internal struggles in the future, and the energy they can allocate to the outside world will be quite limited. Putin is naturally happy to see this happen. The European right generally tends to dialogue and communicate with Putin.

In the future, Europe's position on the Russia-Ukraine issue may be greatly eased, and the voices of "disposable" Ukraine and seeking dialogue and compromise with Russia may be further strengthened or even dominate. If Trump is re-elected in the US election in November this year, the "finale" of the Russia-Ukraine conflict may be getting closer and closer, and may be basically resolved around 2025. For China, this situation has both good and bad news. In theory, the conservative and isolationist tendencies of the right are not conducive to globalization, but the reality is that the European left, under the rule of the United States, is rushing towards the direction of the "new Cold War", which is not as realistic as the right.

The European right-wing nationalists generally have a strong tendency towards realism and may be easier to deal with, after all, interests can be negotiated. Moreover, the rise of the right will inevitably lead to infighting between Europe and the United States, and this opportunity can be used to accelerate the world's development towards multipolarization. In short, Europe and the United States may fall into a period of chaos, which is an opportunity for both China and Russia.

Although the extreme right-wing nationalist forces are constantly rising, their agenda may undermine the unity and stability of Europe, which may lead to greater divisions and discord within the EU.