作者：2989 来源：X，@punk2898
高盛：日本债券暴跌为什么拖垮全球市场。
为了方便大家理解，这就是 --- 现实世界的 DeFi 去杠杆
1. 没人愿意买了
保险公司不买了：日本的寿险公司以前是国债的大买家，但现在他们的资产负债结构变了，不需要买这么多长期国债了
政府担心财政：日本政府面临选举，各党派都在说要减税，这让投资者担心日本政府会更缺钱，国债风险更大
再保险公司在抛售：一些保险公司把资产转给再保险公司，这些公司为了赚更多钱，把日本国债卖掉换成收益更高的投资
2. 央行也帮不上忙
虽然日本央行持有超过一半的日本国债，但面对这种抛售潮，也无能为力。市场流动性很差，想卖的人多，想买的人少。
当日本的利率开始上升，借入日元的成本变高，导致之前依赖于低利率的套利交易变得不再有利。投资者需要偿还借款，导致一系列的去杠杆行为：
• 资产抛售：为了偿还日元贷款，投资者需要卖出他们持有的资产（如股票、债券、加密货币），这会导致这些资产价格的下跌。
• 市场波动：大规模的资产抛售会引发市场的波动和不稳定。
• 资金流动变化：之前流入高回报市场的资金开始回流，导致这些市场的流动性减少，进一步加剧市场的不确定性。
投资者卖出资产获得美元后，需要将美元兑换成日元来还款。由于大量资金从美元流向日元，进一步推动了日元的升值。
这种情况形成了一个“死亡螺旋”：日元升值 -> 投资者抛售资产 -> 兑换美元为日元 -> 日元进一步升值 -> 重复这一过程。
去杠杆化意味着减少债务或杠杆。由于借贷成本增加，投资者不得不减少债务，卖出资产以偿还贷款。这种行为会在全球范围内引发一系列连锁反应，导致资产价格下跌和市场波动加剧。
其实这就和当年的 DeFi 没什么区别，也是去杠杆的过程。
高盛认为，除非有重大政策调整，否则这种波动会反复出现：
日本政府可能会：
减少长期国债发行
回购一些债券来稳定市场
日本央行的动作很关键：
下次加息可能要等到2026年1月
货币政策的任何调整都会影响市场
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