Fitch's BMI Predicts Weaker Thai Baht by 2026 Amid Regulatory Changes

Fitch's research arm, BMI, has projected a potential weakening of the Thai baht by the end of 2026, with the USD/THB expected to trade around 32.00. According to Jin10, BMI highlighted that the positive correlation between gold prices and the Thai baht is likely to diminish as the Thai government intensifies regulatory measures. These policies are anticipated to curb gold-related capital flows. Starting March 1, the Bank of Thailand will impose a daily cap of 50 million baht on gold transactions, requiring prior approval for amounts exceeding this limit. Additionally, BMI forecasts that the Bank of Thailand may prioritize economic growth, potentially cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in 2026, bringing the policy rate down to 0.75%.