Brent Crude Oil Prices Could Surge Amid Iran Conflict, Warns Economist

Brent crude oil prices may rise to approximately $80 per barrel even if the Iran conflict is controlled, according to William Jackson, Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Capital Economics. According to Jin10, this price level was the peak during the 12-day conflict in Iran last June. Jackson cautioned that if the conflict continues to affect supply, oil prices could jump to around $100 per barrel, potentially increasing global inflation rates by 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points. In a 'doomsday scenario,' where the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked for 2–4 weeks due to an escalation in conflict, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have set a target price of $150–200 per barrel. This could trigger a global energy crisis, leading major economies into stagflation or recession. Historically, the second oil crisis in the late 1970s caused international oil prices to soar by over 200%, resulting in a recession in the United States.