Iran Conflict Boosts Australian LNG and Coal Exports Amid Rising Fuel Costs

A recent research report highlights that the ongoing conflict in Iran is driving up the prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal exports, potentially increasing Australia's national revenue. According to Jin10, households are expected to face challenges due to soaring gasoline costs. Economist James McIntyre notes that the closure of Qatar Energy's LNG export terminal could lead to Australia's LNG export revenue exceeding government forecasts by 35% to 40%. He estimates that disruptions in gas and oil supply are pushing the market towards coal, with coal prices rising by 20% to 25% in recent weeks, potentially adding approximately AUD 5 billion (USD 3.5 billion) to Australia's export income. McIntyre anticipates that the increase in gasoline and diesel prices will contribute 0.9 percentage points to Australia's overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March. He expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to overlook this figure and continue focusing on core inflation indicators. According to his calculations, the rise in Australian gasoline prices alone is equivalent to a 25 basis point interest rate hike.