Prediction platform Polymarket is hosting heavily traded markets focused on leadership changes and regime survival. According to NS3.AI, Protos reports that approximately half a billion dollars were exchanged when Polymarket paid out on a market linked to Ayatollah Khamenei’s death. The platform offers markets for leaders such as Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but notably excludes U.S. President Donald Trump and other American politicians.
Despite facing regional bans and previous U.S. regulatory investigations, Polymarket continues to operate globally, provided there are no criminal prosecutions against its executives in the United States.