Global sovereign bonds are experiencing an upswing due to fears that the Middle East conflict could hinder global economic growth. According to Jin10, this has reignited market interest in government bonds that were previously sold off. During the Asian trading session, U.S., Australian, and Japanese government bonds saw gains, as the market speculates that soaring oil prices may signal a long-term global energy shortage. This has bolstered demand for government bonds, which had faced selling pressure recently due to inflation concerns overshadowing their traditional safe-haven appeal.
Macquarie Group strategist Gareth Berry noted, "If the Middle East war remains unresolved, the market is now boldly imagining what the world will look like in a month. People are already drawing parallels to the COVID-19 pandemic period, as the economy faces shutdown risks—this time due to a lack of fuel." Prior to this bond rally, the market had endured weeks of sell-offs due to rising oil prices and concerns over potential central bank interest rate hikes. Recently, the market's focus has shifted to slowing economic growth, alleviating fears that central banks might need to adopt aggressive hawkish stances to control inflation.
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