Key TakeawaysBitcoin hashrate fell ~6% following disruptions linked to Iran conflict.U.S. 5-year Treasury yields near 4% are pressuring Bitcoin demand.Robinhood (HOOD) dropped 16% in March amid declining crypto activity.Prediction market activity surged 2,800% YoY, highlighting shifting retail engagement.Bitcoin Price Stalls as Rising Yields Reduce DemandBitcoin ended the month near $67,000, showing limited momentum as rising U.S. Treasury yields weighed on risk assets.Yields on 5-year U.S. Treasurys climbed to around 4%, reflecting tighter financial conditions and reduced appetite for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Investors have increasingly shifted toward safer assets amid geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns.Bitcoin Hashrate Falls After Iran ConflictBitcoin’s network fundamentals were also impacted, with hashrate declining nearly 6% following military actions involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran.Iran is estimated to account for 6%–8% of global Bitcoin mining, with a significant portion linked to state-backed operations. Disruptions to energy infrastructure and shifting priorities toward defense have likely reduced mining output in the region.Crypto Trading Weakness Hits RobinhoodDeclining trading activity has weighed on crypto-linked equities.Shares of Robinhood fell 16% in March, extending a broader six-month decline of over 50%. The drop reflects weaker crypto trading volumes and reduced retail participation.The company has announced a $1.5 billion share buyback program in response, as it navigates falling transaction revenue and regulatory uncertainty across new business lines.Prediction Markets Surge as Retail Shifts ActivityWhile traditional crypto trading slowed, prediction markets saw significant growth.Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi recorded 192 million transactions in March, marking a 24% monthly increase and a 2,800% surge year-over-year.However, the sector faces regulatory scrutiny in the U.S., with multiple states pursuing legal action over concerns related to gambling classification.Euro Stablecoins Gain Market ShareStablecoin trends also shifted during the month.Euro-denominated stablecoins accounted for 85% of non-USD stablecoin volume, reflecting growing institutional adoption and regulatory clarity under Europe’s MiCA framework.Strategy’s Bitcoin Holdings Turn NegativeStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings moved into an 11% unrealized loss, with an average purchase price of $75,669 compared to current levels near $67,800.Despite this, the company continued aggressive accumulation, purchasing over 40,000 BTC in March, reinforcing its long-term strategy.Macro and Geopolitics Dominate Crypto TrendsThe data highlights a market environment defined by:Rising yields and tighter liquidityGeopolitical disruption impacting mining and energyWeak retail participation but continued institutional accumulationBitcoin remains sensitive to macro conditions, with price action likely to stay range-bound unless yields decline or geopolitical risks ease.
Aaron
Catherine
Snake
Clement
Davin
Kikyo
Hui Xin
Jasper