Oxford Economics: U.S. Employment Figures Overestimated Due to Iran War Impact

Oxford Economics reported on April 4 that the U.S. employment statistics for March significantly overestimated the pre-war strength of the job market. According to Jin10, this overestimation is due to declines in both the labor force and household employment numbers. The ongoing Iran war is affecting real economic activities, leading to a slowdown in employment growth. While the war's impact on inflation is immediate, its negative effects on consumer spending, business investment, and hiring will become more apparent in the coming months. Oxford Economics maintains its baseline forecast that the Federal Reserve will overlook the one-time shock of rising oil prices and proceed with two interest rate cuts this year to mitigate any potential weakness in the labor market.