According to CoinDesk, a global coordinated monetary easing campaign is currently underway, with most asset classes experiencing a rise. However, bitcoin remains under pressure and may require more than modest rate cuts before initiating a new bull run.
Western central banks, including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Canada, have begun cutting interest rates. The Federal Reserve is expected to embark on its first easing cycle since 2019, with a potential rate cut of 25 or 50 basis points next week. Japan, on the other hand, has taken initial steps towards tightening, maintaining a benchmark policy rate of 0.25%, just above zero.
Traditional markets have reacted as anticipated, with stocks, bonds, and gold prices rising sharply. Despite this, bitcoin has not followed suit. Although it saw a rally on Friday, its price remains below $60,000, approximately 20% below its all-time high of over $73,500 set six months ago.
Bitcoin's performance has been mixed. Despite a significant pullback since March, it remains up by more than 40% year-to-date and 127% from year-ago levels. This underperformance may be a temporary breather after a substantial upside move. However, when viewed over a longer period, bitcoin's current price is lower than its peak nearly three years ago at $69,000. Considering the rapid inflation over these years, bitcoin's performance appears even less favorable, especially if it is to be considered an inflation hedge. In contrast, the S&P 500 has risen by about 33%, and gold has increased by more than 50% during the same period.
Steno Research highlighted that bitcoin has not experienced many rate-cutting cycles, with the notable one starting in 2019. During that period, bitcoin declined by about 15% from the Fed's first rate cut in August to the end of November, by which time the Fed had reduced rates by 75 basis points. It wasn't until the significant Covid-era monetary push in March 2020 that bitcoin began its meteoric rise.
It is possible that a short series of modest rate cuts may have little impact on bitcoin's price. Instead, larger, emergency-style central bank measures might be necessary to trigger a new bull run.
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