U.S. Economic Indicators and Market Trends for June 2025

According to PANews, U.S. Treasury bonds experienced their first monthly decline of the year, while the dollar's exchange rate fell for the fifth consecutive month, marking the longest downward trend since 2020. Spot gold dropped approximately 2% on Friday, barely achieving a five-month rise, with the monthly line nearly flat. Traders are weighing the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, mixed inflation data, and the return of tariff uncertainties. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the upcoming week: On Monday at 08:00 UTC+8, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will speak on economic prospects at the 2025 Bank of Korea International Conference. On Tuesday at 00:45 UTC+8, 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a Q&A session. At 01:00 UTC+8 on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will deliver opening remarks at an event. At 22:00 UTC+8 on Tuesday, the U.S. April JOLTs job openings and April factory orders monthly rate will be released. On Wednesday at 00:45 UTC+8, Goolsbee will again participate in a Q&A session. At 20:15 UTC+8 on Wednesday, 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic, along with Fed Governor Lisa Cook, will attend the "Fed Listens" event. On Thursday at 02:00 UTC+8, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions. At 19:30 UTC+8 on Thursday, the U.S. May Challenger job cuts will be announced. At 20:30 UTC+8 on Thursday, initial jobless claims for the week ending May 31 and the U.S. April trade balance will be reported. On Friday at 00:00 UTC+8, Fed Governor Kugler will speak at the New York Economic Club. At 01:30 UTC+8 on Friday, 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will discuss economic prospects. At 20:30 UTC+8 on Friday, the U.S. May unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, and average hourly earnings year/month rate will be released. Next week's data focus will be Friday's non-farm payrolls. According to Bloomberg's median survey, economists expect an increase of 125,000 jobs in May, following stronger-than-expected growth in March and April. This would maintain the average increase over the past three months at a robust level of 162,000. Federal Reserve officials are also awaiting clear information on how trade and tax policies will impact the economy and inflation, likely remaining calm regarding the labor market report. Adding complexity, U.S. stocks are entering one of the historically calmest months for gains. Over the past 30 years, the S&P 500 index has averaged only a 0.2% rise in June, compared to an average of 0.8% in the other 11 months. In post-presidential election years, the S&P 500 typically struggles in early June as investors take profits heading into summer, especially if the index received a strong boost in May, as it did this year.