OTC Weekly Trading Insights (03/13/2025)
Top Interest of the WeekLast week, Prosper ($PROS) experienced significant price volatility, skyrocketing by more than 150% within a single day, climbing from $0.32 to $0.75. The PROS team recently rolled out an update for its dApp and shared a mysterious tweet that hinted at upcoming features without disclosing any specifics. Although the price did pull back after the initial surge, it still recorded a 42.8% increase over the past week, while Bitcoin (BTC) saw a decline of 7.8%.SuperRare ($RARE), an NFT marketplace, has shown remarkable resilience even as the broader cryptocurrency market faced downturns. While BTC and ETH fell to $80,000 and $1,900, respectively, the RARE token surged by over 200% in just two days, achieving a trading volume exceeding $3 billion—nearly four times its market capitalization. This impressive performance caught the attention of traders, leading to heightened demand that further drove up the token's price.Ethena ($ENA) is the project team behind USDe, a synthetic stablecoin crafted to uphold its value independently of conventional financial systems. In contrast to certain stablecoins that rely on over-collateralization for stability, USDe is backed by a diverse array of assets, including ETH, stETH, BTC, and USDT, presenting a unique strategy for maintaining its peg. On March 4, Ethena released 2.06 billion of its native ENA tokens, significantly boosting the circulating supply. This sudden increase initially caused the ENA price to drop below $0.36 as the market adjusted to the new volume—a typical market response. Nevertheless, the decline was brief; shortly after, news of new investments in the Ethena project surfaced, sparking a surge in buying interest that propelled the ENA price above $0.45, signaling a resurgence of confidence in the ecosystem.Overall MarketSource: TradingViewThe above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at the log scale.In our prior analysis, we mapped out a potential short-term price path for Bitcoin, emphasizing the pivotal role of the RSI (Relative Strength Index) trendline. Since Bitcoin crossed the $100k threshold, this trendline has rejected upward price movements five times, a pattern that underscores a steady erosion of market demand and fading bullish momentum. We also pinpointed a vacuum zone between $76k and $90k—a range where Bitcoin surged rapidly in November 2024, leaving little established support or resistance. This lack of structure suggests that significant price action could unfold as Bitcoin nears this area.Recent market developments have amplified Bitcoin’s price volatility. The US’s shifting tariff policies and uncertainty over near-term economic growth have tightened the correlation between cryptocurrencies and US stock markets. Remarkably, the US stock market relinquished all gains accrued since the Trump election in just twelve days, dragging Bitcoin below $80k. Despite bullish catalysts like President Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement and last Friday’s Crypto Summit, bearish sentiment dominated, pushing Bitcoin’s price lower as it sought solid market support. On Tuesday morning in Asia, Bitcoin hit $76.6k—the upper boundary of our identified support zone—triggering buying interest that sparked a significant rebound across Bitcoin and the wider crypto market.The key question now is whether this rebound signals Bitcoin’s bottom and a potential climb higher. We contend that downward pressure is likely to persist. Bitcoin, commanding over 60% of the crypto market’s total capitalization, moves in lockstep with the US stock market, which faces headwinds from US tariffs on trade partners and the Federal Reserve’s tight monetary stance. This environment has tilted investor sentiment toward risk aversion. Although tech stocks spurred a US market rebound over the past two days, we view this as a fleeting reaction to the recent selloff, not a sustainable recovery. With reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2 and possible EU import tariffs looming in April, our outlook for risk assets, including Bitcoin, remains bearish in the near term.Historical trends bolster this perspective. Markets often slump before tariff effective dates—evidenced by declines preceding February 3, March 4, and March 12, dates tied to prior tariff rollouts—only to stage brief rebounds immediately afterward. Yet, these relief rallies have failed to reverse the broader downward trajectory.In short, the economic uncertainty fueled by new US tariffs casts a bearish shadow over crypto assets in the short term. We expect $76k to function as a primary support zone, with $72k as a secondary level, given its role as a stubborn resistance ceiling for five months in 2024.Options MarketThe above chart is the at-the-money implied volatility for BTC and ETH options.Following a steep decline in BTC and ETH prices on Tuesday morning in Asia, BTC fell to a four-month low of $76.2k, and ETH sank to a one-year low of $1,754. Over the next two days, both cryptocurrencies staged a relief rebound, but the recoveries diverged sharply. BTC’s implied volatilities (IVs)—a key measure of expected price swings—have settled back to a steady 55%, signaling a return to calmer market conditions. Meanwhile, ETH’s rebound has been noticeably weaker, with its front-end IVs remaining elevated. This contrast highlights lingering uncertainty around ETH and suggests a potential for further price turbulence, while BTC appears to be regaining stability.Looking ahead, the options market is pricing BTC’s implied volatility in the mid-50% range over the next two to six months, reflecting a balanced and stable outlook. This flat IV profile indicates that traders expect BTC to trade within a predictable range, with no sharp or dramatic price movements on the horizon. This shift to a more subdued volatility forecast stands in stark contrast to the recent price plunge, suggesting that the market has absorbed the shock and is now bracing for a period of consolidation rather than chaos.With BTC’s implied volatility currently at a relatively low level, traders who believe volatility could spike in the future have a prime opportunity to act. Strategies like straddles or strangles—designed to profit from significant price swings in either direction—can be particularly effective here. By entering these positions while IVs are low, traders can secure them at a lower cost, maximizing potential gains if BTC’s price breaks out of its current range and volatility surges.Our Option RFQ platform empowers traders to seize these opportunities with ease and efficiency. Offering a wide array of strategies—from vanilla call and put options to advanced plays like Call Spreads, Put Spreads, Calendar Spreads, Diagonal Spreads, Straddles, and Strangles—the platform delivers competitive pricing and seamless execution. Its intuitive interface lets you pick your instrument and get an instant quote, simplifying the process and enabling you to act swiftly on market conditions. Whether you’re hedging or speculating, this tool enhances your ability to navigate the options market with confidence.Binance users can access our Options RFQ platform via: https://www.binance.com/en/vip-portal/OTC-trading-platform?ref=OTC-OptionFor more details, you can also check the FAQ page for Options RFQ: https://www.binance.com/en/support/faq/detail/6d3a80c6574f482eb45457eac64bbff6Macro at a glance Last Thursday (25-03-06)The European Central Bank implemented a 25 basis points reduction during its March meeting, aligning with market predictions. Additionally, the central bank indicated a potential slowdown in future rate cuts, stating that “monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive.”U.S. tariff strategies regarding Mexico and Canada experienced further inconsistencies, with significant tariffs being imposed and then partially suspended for a period of 30 days.Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 221,000 last week, lower than the anticipated figure of 234,000.The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow has adjusted its Q1 forecast from -2.8% to -2.4%.Last Friday (25-03-07)The US nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000 jobs in February, falling short of the anticipated 159,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.0% in January to 4.1% in February.On Monday China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a more significant contraction than expected in February. The CPI recorded a 0.2% decrease month-over-month, resulting in a 0.7% decline year-over-year. Meanwhile, the PPI fell by 2.2% on an annual basis.On TuesdayThe US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) revealed that job openings increased to 7.74 million in January, a rise from the adjusted figure of 7.508 million in December and surpassing the consensus estimate of 7.63 million. This tight labor market in the US indicates that demand for labor remains strong, which could sustain upward pressure on wages and affect inflation expectations.On WednesdayThe US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February reported a year-over-year rise of 2.8%, a decrease from January's 3.0% and slightly under the expected 2.9%. The Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy sectors, increased by 3.1% year-over-year, down from 3.3% and below the anticipated 3.2%. These statistics suggest a moderation in inflation for February, resulting in a dip in the US dollar as investors speculated on the possibility of earlier or more substantial interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.Following the implementation of 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports starting Wednesday, combined with the easing inflation data, the market has shifted back to a risk-on stance, signaling a robust recovery. US tech stocks are at the forefront of this rebound, with Bitcoin trading above $83,000 just before the US market closed.Convert Portal Volume ChangeThe above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. The BTC experienced a significant selloff amid uncertainty surrounding the US tariff policy. The inconsistent tariff approach taken by the US on imported goods has heightened concerns about a potential recession. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, the market expects a continuation of restrictive monetary policies in the US, which further amplifies the bearish outlook on crypto assets that are particularly sensitive to global liquidity changes. In the Monitoring sector, trading volume surged by 97.3%, primarily driven by robust demand for Prosper ($PROS). In the Fan Token sector, there was a 29.4% increase in trading volume last week, largely propelled by strong interest in the OG Fan Token ($OG). Conversely, the Payments sector saw an 8.3% decline in trading volume. A notable decrease in trading volume from Ripple ($XRP) countered the strong demand for BTC, resulting in a downturn in this sector.Why trade OTC? Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. Email: [email protected] for more information.Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!
