Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark on February 2nd. Wintermute had identified $85,000 as a key pivot point for the market's direction this quarter the previous week, but this level failed to support the price action and instead became the upper limit of the decline. Bitcoin subsequently touched $75,700. Wintermute's analysis indicates that this drop marks the market entering a period of extreme fear, with sentiment dominated by deleveraging and the liquidation of high-beta speculative positions. Wintermute believes that the traditional four-year halving cycle has become ineffective in the institutionalization process, and the crypto economic structure is shifting towards a walled garden model, with liquidity concentrated in spot ETFs and large-cap assets backed by the digital asset treasury. The average duration of altcoin rallies has compressed from 60 days in 2024 to 20 days in early 2026. Wintermute lists three key variables for market recovery: the expansion of institutional orders to assets like Solana and XRP, the wealth effect generated by Bitcoin's continued rise, and the return of retail interest. Wintermute emphasizes that a true reversal may depend more on Federal Reserve policy than on the crypto industry narrative.