The Federal Reserve is about to enter a quiet period; CITIC Securities maintains its expectation of a December rate cut.

New York Fed President Williams hinted at a further rate cut in December, reversing market expectations. The market now sees a 70% probability of a Fed rate cut in December. The Fed will enter its blackout period on November 29th. Before this period, Powell has no scheduled public speeches or media interviews, and Williams' remarks may be the last Fed official statement to influence market expectations. We maintain our previous view that December will likely see a "close call" rate cut of 25 basis points. For the market, the reversal of rate cut expectations, coupled with the progress of the "28-point" plan and news of the Trump administration considering exporting H200 chips to China, means that macroeconomic factors are no longer a source of market pressure in the short term. The market may focus more on issues such as AI company bond issuances and cryptocurrency trends. (Jinshi)