Polymarket Bettors Back CZ as Top Contender for Trump Presidential Pardon in 2025

A surge of activity on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket indicates that former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao could be the most likely candidate to receive a presidential pardon from Donald Trump in 2025.

The trend follows CZ’s guilty plea for violating U.S. anti-money laundering laws and a formal pardon application filed earlier this year. As of this week, 36% of Polymarket participants are wagering that CZ will be granted a Trump pardon—the highest probability among all candidates tracked by the platform.

Other notable figures include former U.S. congressman George Santos and entrepreneur Roger Ver, each with 14% odds, followed by Rudy Giuliani, Sean “Diddy” Combs, and Steve Bannon at lower percentages.

For a market rooted in speculation and news flow, this level of consensus signals strong conviction from traders on CZ’s potential political fortune. Still, experts caution that Polymarket data reflects collective user expectations—not official White House intention—and can shift quickly with new legal or political developments.

Pardon Bid Heightens Political Scrutiny

CZ’s road to a possible pardon gained momentum after he stepped down from his role at Binance in November 2023, following a plea deal and subsequent sentencing to four months in U.S. prison. Notably, Zhao confirmed in a May podcast that his legal team formally petitioned the Trump administration for clemency.

The pursuit of a pardon has triggered bipartisan scrutiny in Washington. Democratic lawmakers, including Senator Elizabeth Warren, penned an open letter seeking transparency over Zhao’s pardon status and raising concerns about a $2 billion stablecoin deal involving Binance, World Liberty Financial (WLFI), and UAE-based firm MGX. Critics suggest potential conflicts where business interests and political considerations intersect.

The CZ pardon debate underscores the increasingly intertwined worlds of crypto, predictive markets, and U.S. politics. As Polymarket and similar platforms capture real-time expectations around major legal and regulatory events, their predictive value increasingly shapes crypto market sentiment and public discourse—even if they aren't indicators of final White House action.

For now, Changpeng Zhao remains the favorite for a Trump pardon among Polymarket bettors, signaling the crypto community’s hope for a high-profile clemency and its potential implications for Binance’s future in the U.S.

Nevertheless, political outcomes remain unpredictable—and subject to the complicated machinations of legal, market, and governmental forces.